Poll finds that Alberta-Ottawa tensions are boosting Smith's popularity

OTTAWA — Separatist winds are lifting the political sails of Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, according to a study from an Alberta pollster. The provincewide poll , taken this month by Calgary’s Janet Brown, found that Smith’s popularity has ticked upward from the same time last year, giving her a double-digit edge over rival Naheed Nenshi. Brown told the National Post that the perception that Smith is better at dealing with Ottawa is part of what’s giving her a boost in popularity. “Right now… the thing that we see that’s most strongly correlated with (Smith’s) support numbers, is the relationship with Ottawa,” said Brown. Brown noted that Smith is doing especially well with the “middle third” of Albertans who identify strongly as Canadians, but still think that the province is being treated unfairly by Ottawa. “They don’t necessarily want to separate, but they don’t want the status quo either… and the NDP hasn’t really been speaking to this group,” said Brown. Brown noted that, on the question of identity , Albertans were split neatly into thirds, with 32 per cent saying they felt most attached to Alberta, 34 per cent saying they felt more attached to Canada, and 33 per cent saying they were attached to both equally. Smith spoke directly to this third, ambivalent group in a livestreamed address to Albertans earlier this month. “And then there are hundreds of thousands of Albertans that probably feel a lot like I do — that are deeply frustrated with the way our province has been mistreated (but) still believe there is a viable path (for Alberta) to succeed and prosper within a united Canada,” Smith told viewers. Nenshi, by contrast, has staked out a hardline position as a staunch federalist and defender of Canadian identity, accusing Smith of playing “stupid separatist games ” and calling Alberta separatism an “extremist fringe agenda.” Nenshi’s Alberta NDP has also launched the website separatistsmith.ca to mobilize opposition to the premier. Brown added that Albertans are currently giving Prime Minister Mark Carney “the benefit of the doubt” and holding out to see if he and Smith are able to strike a deal on national unity. “Albertans tend to have a fairly positive impression of Carney, considering how few voted for (the Liberals),” noted Brown. The survey showed Smith’s United Conservative Party leading across all age groups and on-track to win a commanding 17-seat majority in the next provincial election. The poll was taken between May 7 and 21, using a random sample of 1,200 Albertans contacted by phone (40 per cent landline, 60 per cent cell phone), carrying a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.8 per cent, 19 times out of 20. National Post rmohamed@postmedia.com Get more deep-dive National Post political coverage and analysis in your inbox with the Political Hack newsletter, where Ottawa bureau chief Stuart Thomson and political analyst Tasha Kheiriddin get at what’s really going on behind the scenes on Parliament Hill every Wednesday and Friday, exclusively for subscribers. Sign up here. Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and sign up for our daily newsletter, Posted, here.