As separatist talk simmers in Alberta and Quebec, Canadians say breaking up will be hard to do: poll

Against a backdrop of fresh talk of Alberta separation and the constant spectre of Quebec’s sovereignty movement, a new national opinion poll found that most Canadians say breaking up will be hard to do. A large majority of respondents nationally said any secession by one province would require negotiation with all provinces and must be supported by a clear majority of voters in the province, and most said separation cannot be a unilateral decision, and it should require approval by the federal House of Commons. A national opinion survey , conducted by Leger Marketing for the Association for Canadian Studies and provided to Postmedia, was designed to probe Canadians attitudes about the process for separation, rather than their views on separation itself, and what should follow a successful provincial leave referendum. “The bottom line is that Canadians across the country envision the process as much more complex than a simple majority vote on a referendum question,” said Jack Jedwab, president of the Montreal-based Association for Canadian Studies. Public discussion about Alberta separating from Canada drew more mainstream attention in May, after the federal election returned the Liberal Party to government and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith tabled provincial legislation to make it easier for Albertans to trigger a referendum on the province leaving the rest of Canada. Smith said she would hold such a referendum if a citizen petition called for it. Separatists in Quebec hope the renewed discourse on separation will boost their long-standing desire for independent statehood, which twice went to provincial referendum which failed to support sovereignty, in 1980 and 1995. The Parti Québécois plans another provincial sovereignty referendum in the years ahead. That creates plenty of secessionist talk and debate, but it has been 30 years since Canada has seen an actual separation referendum. “Many Canadians of voting age and, of course, most immigrants didn’t experience the last referendum 30 years ago, but there is a growing consensus that the rest of the country would want a say in the process and secession would not be simple,” said Jedwab. The poll asked 1,537 people across Canada a series of questions on the mechanism of a possible separation. A majority of Canadians said any referendum question regarding provincial separation from Canada must be unambiguous, with 59 per cent of respondents agreeing with that, with only 11 per cent disagreeing, and 30 per cent saying they don’t know or declined to answer. Respondents in Quebec and Alberta showed the strongest support for an unambiguous question, at 71 and 62 per cent, respectively. A clear majority of Canadians, 66 per cent, said there must be a clear majority of voters supporting separation in a separatist referendum for it to be considered — with Quebecers the softest on the issue. The poll showed that 76 per cent in Atlantic Canada, 75 per cent in B.C., 72 per cent in Alberta, 66 per cent in Ontario, and 62 per cent in Manitoba-Saskatchewan agreed that there must be a clear majority of voter support for separation. In Quebec it was 55 per cent, still a majority, with 26 per cent saying it was not necessary, by far the highest in the country. A majority of respondents in every region agreed that a province separating from Canada would require negotiations with all provinces — even respondents in Quebec, although they were the softest on the issue. Nationally, 62 per cent of respondents agreed that negotiation was necessary for provincial separation, with 19 per cent saying it wasn’t needed and another 19 per cent saying they didn’t know or declined to answer. The age of respondents impacted how strongly that feeling was, with the youngest cohort of 18 to 34 year olds showing a low of 56 per cent agreement, the middle cohort of 35 to 54 year olds rising to 61 per cent agreement, and the oldest cohort, those 55 years old and above, being the strongest in agreement at 67 per cent. The regional breakdown on the need for negotiations was lowest in the two provinces most active with separatist ambition — Alberta at 52 per cent and Quebec at 57. The highest support for the need for negotiation was in Atlantic Canada (67 per cent), followed by Ontario (66), B.C. (65), and Manitoba-Saskatchewan (61). Most Canadians said that even after a favourable provincial vote for separation, a province cannot unilaterally leave Canada, the poll found, although there is a lot of uncertainty about the issue. Nationally, 42 per cent said a province cannot make its own decision to separate from Canada while 22 per cent said such a decision by a province was enough. A large number, 36 per cent, said they didn’t know or didn’t answer the question. Only respondents in B.C. delivered a majority response dismissing unilateral departure — barely — at 51 per cent. Other regions followed: Ontario (46 per cent), Atlantic Canada (44), Alberta (43), Manitoba-Saskatchewan (42), and Quebec (31). Quebec was the only region with more people embracing unilateral separation than dismissing the idea: 32 per cent said it was OK, while 37 per cent said they weren’t sure or didn’t answer. While a majority of those in British Columbia, Atlantic Canada, and Ontario said a referendum question on separation should require the approval of the federal House of Commons, most Quebecers and Albertans disagreed. In Alberta, 43 per cent said a referendum question should not require a federal parliamentary vote, while 35 per cent agreed it should. That’s even stronger than in Quebec, where 36 per cent said it should not require a federal approval, with 34 per cent saying it should. Those in B.C. showed the strongest support for federal input, at 60 per cent, followed by Atlantic Canada at 58 per cent, and Ontario at 55 per cent. In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, pooled together in the poll, 43 per cent agreed there should be parliamentary approval, with 21 per cent saying it shouldn’t be required and 36 per cent saying they didn’t know or declined to answer. “Canadians will want agreement on the question and will seemingly not be inclined to allow an outcome that involves a breakup to be established as set out solely by a province that wishes to separate,” said Jedwab. “Without previous discussion around the process and the desired outcome, the risk is that results will not secure required recognition.” The public opinion survey was conducted online with 1,537 respondents in Canada from May 16 to 18. As a non-probability sample in a panel survey, traditional margins of error do not apply. • Email: ahumphreys@postmedia.com | Twitter: AD_Humphreys Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. 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