In Alberta, separatism is on the ballot in a rural byelection on Monday

OTTAWA — Cameron Davies, the leader of the separatist Republican Party of Alberta and the party’s candidate for Monday’s Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills byelection, admits that his party’s name and MAGA red branding are causing some confusion at the doors . “It certainly has come up in conversation,” Davies told the National Post on Thursday. “People want to know more about it, what it means and that’s just an opportunity to explain why the word ‘republican’ and why a constitutional republic is something we want to look at.” Davies’ Republican party isn’t formally aligned with the more well-known one south of the border — notably swapping out the latter’s elephant for a more local buffalo as its logo — but it does aspire to make Alberta an independent republic governed similarly in principle to the U.S. “The form of government Canada has doesn’t work for Alberta, and the form of government we have here in Alberta doesn’t work for Alberta,” said Davies. Davies, an ex-UCP organizer, is one of two separatist candidates who’ll be on the ballot in Monday’s byelection in the south-central Alberta riding, where the governing United Conservative Party won more votes than anywhere else in the province in 2023’s provincial election. The other is employee benefits specialist Bill Tufts, running under the banner of the Wildrose Loyalty Coalition. Under normal circumstances, the byelection would be a tap-in for first-time UCP candidate Tara Sawyer. But these are anything but normal circumstances, with support for Alberta separatism spiking on the heels of the federal Liberals fourth straight election win. What’s more, Davies and Tufts have a fortuitous piece of Alberta election lore to point to. Western Concept candidate Gordon Kesler notched a surprise 1982 byelection win in predecessor riding Olds-Didsbury, briefly becoming the first and only separatist to hold a seat in Alberta’s legislature. Kesler is still active in the area’s politics and is backing Davis in the byelection . Ex-Alberta MLA Derek Fildebrandt, whose now-defunct riding of Strathmore-Brooks crossed into the riding’s east end, says he expects the Republicans to place a strong second, possibly even pushing the UCP below a majority vote share. “Based on my gut, nothing hard,” said Fildebrandt. The UCP’s Nathan Cooper won in dominant fashion with 75 per cent of the vote in 2013. Davies says he’d be happy with 20 per cent of the riding’s vote, around what the populist Wildrose party got in its first election in 2008 . “(Wildrose) got around 20 per cent of the vote, and that was after being a party for close to a year,” said Davies. The Alberta Republicans, formerly the Buffalo Party of Alberta, formally launched on February 11 . Davies was acclaimed as leader two months later in April. “Anything at or above 20 per cent is a significant gain, given how short of a runway we’ve had,” said Davies. Davies, who lives just outside the riding in south Red Deer, says he typically gets between 12 and 18 volunteers each day and has knocked on 20,000 doors in the riding, which is home to about 50,000 people. Tufts, for his part, says he’s in it to win it. “Well, we would like to win,” said Tufts. Tufts said that the contest’s timing, outside of a general election, gives him an opening. “Byelections can be quite tumultuous events, typically because of the low voter turnout. So I think we’ve had an opportunity to go out there and work hard, knock on the doors and explain our position.” Tufts pointed out that both Kesler and Alberta’s first Wildrose MLA Paul Hinman won office in byelections. He said he was optimistic that his party’s brand recognition would propel him past Alberta Republican candidate Davies and into the winner’s circle. “The Wildrose has been around for a long time … so I think there’s a lot of credibility with the name, the recognition of our brand and our policies that resonate with a lot of voters,” said Tufts. The populist Wildrose Party merged with the rival Alberta Progressive Conservatives in 2017 to form the UCP but Tufts’ Wildrose Loyalty Coalition lives on as a splinter group. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith led the Wildrose Party from 2009 to 2014 before defecting to the PCs in a disastrous floor-crossing. Tufts says that a revitalized Wildrose caucus could hold the UCP to account and keep it from getting weak-kneed in seeing through the results of a successful referendum on independence, drawing a comparison to the recent Liberal-NDP supply and confidence agreement . “Look at who the most powerful party in Ottawa was over the last few years: that was the NDP,” said Tufts. Katherine Kowalchuk, a separatist who lives in the riding, says she’ll be voting Republican. “The sense that I get from Cam (Davies) is that he’s prepared, he has conservative viewpoints on things… and I think that he has the ability to stand by those convictions,” said Kowalchuk. “We need to fight for our strong Alberta heritage rooted in family and freedom, and Cam is really the only candidate that’s talking about this.” Kowalchuk ran in the riding for the Alberta Independence Party in 2023, winning 4.7 per cent of the vote. Pollster Dan Arnold, an executive with Pollara Strategic Insights says that Alberta’s budding separatist movement could hardly have picked a better time and place for its first electoral test. He noted that support for Alberta independence among committed voters was at 24 per cent in mid-May, the highest level his firm has seen since it started polling Albertans on the topic in 2011. “My assumption is the reason you’re seeing the numbers edging up is because (separation) is now in the spotlight,” said Arnold. He said that the UCP will likely get spooked if the separatist vote breaks the double-digits. “10 per cent can grow over time to 20 per cent and then you’re getting into vote split territory,” said Arnold. Arnold noted that Smith has dialled up the rhetoric against Ottawa’s equalization program in recent days, likely in an effort to shore up soft separatists in the province. “In our past polling, we’ve generally found that nobody really knows what equalization is but, at least in Alberta and Saskatchewan, they think it’s unfair to their province.” Smith said on Monday that Quebec, the program’s biggest recipient, should develop a resource “royalty framework to wean them off the equalization that comes from western Canada.” Arnold said that 35 per cent of UCP voters see Smith as a separatist. Ironically, this could be a problem for her with her base, with polls showing that over half of UCP voters would vote ‘yes’ in a referendum on independence. Sawyer says she’s not a separatist and believes in a strong Alberta within a united Canada. She told National Post that she’s not playing the over/under game. Instead, she’s focused on earning the trust of voters and winning the seat. “We are working hard and earning every vote,” said Sawyer. Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills is one of three byelections scheduled for Monday, with the NDP tipped to win two Edmonton-area races. National Post Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and sign up for our daily newsletter, Posted, here.