Conservatives pull ahead as affordability and cost-of-living concerns grow: poll

Buoyed by growing anxieties around affordability and the economy, the Conservative Party of Canada has edged ahead of the Liberals for the first time since Mark Carney became prime minister in March, according to one new poll.

New figures from Abacus Data released Sunday show a “modest but meaningful shift” in terms of national vote intention with Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives (41 per cent) edging the Liberals (39 per cent) among decided voters. The Liberal share is down four points since early August.

Most of the interviews were conducted before the Air Canada flight attendants’ strike and the Carney government’s attempt to legislate them back to work, as well as before Poilievre’s byelection win in Alberta on Monday, Abacus noted. It also preceded Carney’s decision on Friday to withdraw counter-tariffs on some U.S. goods.

Among those certain to vote but undecided, the two main parties are in a dead heat, each with 41 per cent of the vote intention.

Regionally, the two parties are statistically tied in B.C. and Atlantic Canada, and the Liberals are marginally ahead of both the Conservatives in Ontario and the Bloc in Quebec. The CPC continues to dominate Alberta and enjoys strong support in the Prairies.

More than two-thirds (69 per cent) believe it’s time for a change in Ottawa and 42 per cent of those say there’s a good alternative to the Liberals. Meanwhile, 31 per cent think the Liberals are worthy of re-election.

While approval for Carney and company remains strong at 49 per cent, it dipped below 50 since he became party leader and disapproval of him climbed to 30 per cent from a low of 23 per cent in early June.

Carney edges Poilievre (+18 vs. -2) in net favourability — a metric calculated by subtracting the percentage of people who have an unfavourable opinion from the percentage of people who have a favourable opinion — but Abacus CEO David Coletto said, “the Conservative coalition remains firm.

“With Poilievre back in the House of Commons this fall and with a complex set of issues in front of the government, we may start to see more shifts in public opinion,” he wrote.

According to the poll, the rising cost of living remains the dominant issue for 60 per cent of respondents, dwarfing other matters like the economy (36 per cent), the housing crisis (35 per cent) and health care (33 per cent).

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration remain the second most influential political issue (38 per cent) among poll respondents, though “his shadow is receding slightly,” having dropped from 44 per cent earlier in the summer.

Abacus said the Conservatives are increasingly seen as the best party to deal with the core affordability and economic issues, whereas there is more confidence in the Liberals to handle Trump.

• Canadians weigh in on issues influencing their election day decision in a new poll
• Inside Poilievre's long journey back after his Alberta byelection campaign

Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and sign up for our newsletters here.