John Ivison: Carney dreams of majority but dare not say it

VICTORIA — “Friends, pinkos and separatists, lend me your votes.” Mark Carney wasn’t quite as churlish as to insult his left-of-centre rivals but his pitch from the upper deck of Victoria’s Empress Hotel, overlooking the harbour, was to appeal to progressive voters to “vote with me, for positive reasons, regardless of which party you supported in the past.” “We need to come together to fight Donald Trump together,” he said. The only certainty in politics is that nothing is certain. But all the available evidence suggests that the Liberals are on course for an election victory on Monday. Everything is coming up roses for Carney right now. On Wednesday, Ontario’s Progressive Conservative government issued an open letter saying that the current child-care deal with the federal government comes to an end next April and the province wants Ottawa to step up with “stable and adequate funding” to extend the program. Premier Doug Ford might just as well have stuck a “Vote Carney” sign on his front lawn. The Liberal leader’s response was unequivocal in Victoria. “No problem. I’m absolutely standing behind $10-a-day child care in Canada.” If victory looks likely, what’s less clear is whether it would be a majority or minority government. This is a high-wire act for Carney. He has to appear confident, but he can’t appear too confident; to give the impression of momentum but not too much momentum; to veer leftward but not so far left that he alienates centrist voters. The Liberal leader professed common cause with the NDP, but make no mistake, he is back in Victoria because he wants to bury, not praise, the New Democrats, who hold all but one of the seven seats on Vancouver Island. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has attacked the $28 billion in “undefined spending cuts” he says are in the Liberal platform. But until now, Carney seems not to have mentioned the New Democrats once during this whole campaign. He was finally persuaded to, in answer to a reporter’s question, saying that when he thinks of what the NDP calls “progressive policies,” he thinks of “the policies and institutions that are at the heart of this country.” The collapse of the NDP vote means that ridings they won comfortably in 2021 are now in play, the Liberals say, including that of veteran B.C. MP Peter Julian in New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville. There are no rumblings of adrift New Democrats “coming home” back to the party, despite Singh’s appeal to do so. The story in Quebec is less clear cut. In 2021, the Liberals won 33 seats and the Bloc 32. President Donald Trump’s threats initially drove many traditional Bloc supporters into the arms of the Liberals, conscious that Quebec culture would be swamped if Trump’s most expansive ambitions were fulfilled. The 338Canada.com poll aggregator currently projects 43 Liberal seats, 22 Bloc and 12 Conservatives in Quebec. But as Trump’s threats have receded, and Carney’s victory has grown more assured, there are signs that Bloc supporters are less ardent about sticking with the Liberals. As my colleague Antoine Trépanier noted Wednesday , the Liberal majority runs through Quebec but party sources suggest the prospect is slipping away. BQ Leader Yves-François Blanchet is telling Quebecers that Carney’s victory is a certainty and that the Bloc is now “on the offence.” Marc Miller, the former Liberal immigration minister who is running again in Montreal, said that he is not seeing a Bloc rebound. “If it’s happening, it’s recent and they (those Bloc voters) probably weren’t coming over anyway,” he said. When asked why he needs a majority, Carney said the country is in the process of joining together. “It is important we have a strong government to face President Trump,” he said. Quebec will be the kingmaker, and its voters will likely decide precisely how strong that government is. jivison@criffel.ca Twitter.com/IvisonJ

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